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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."